July 2025 Market Update

With the shortest day behind us and a new financial year kicking off, there’s a renewed sense of momentum in the air. The financial landscape is buzzing with activity, offering plenty to watch as global events unfold.

Geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East, fluctuating oil prices, and evolving US trade policies continue to dominate headlines. Yet, despite the noise, market sentiment remains surprisingly upbeat.

The ASX wrapped up the financial year with an impressive near-10% gain — its strongest performance since the COVID-19 rebound — shrugging off concerns around potential US tariffs. While Australia remains relatively shielded from direct tariff impacts, there’s growing unease over the federal government’s $1.5 trillion investment in the US, which could face increased taxation.

For the US, the tariff debate poses a more immediate economic challenge. Inflationary pressures from trade restrictions could trigger further rate hikes. Still, Wall Street is holding its ground. The S&P 500 climbed to a four-month high in June, buoyed by hopes of rate cuts and smoother trade negotiations ahead.